Weekly Market Pulse

I’ve gone through the full set of weekly rates, spreads, housing data, and equity indicators, and here’s what caught my attention. The signal is still one of easing, but the magnitude matters. Over the past month, the Canada 5 year government bond is down 6 basis points, and the 10 year is down 7 basis points. This is not a regime shift, but it is a clean directional move, and at this stage of the cycle, even small changes in benchmarks materially affect underwriting. These are the same data points I review every week, and precision here is critical.

Featured Metric Deep Dive, Government Bond Yields

This week’s featured metric remains government bond yields, specifically the 5 and 10 year points that anchor multifamily financing. The Canada 5 year government yield is now approximately 2.98 percent, while the 10 year sits near 3.41 percent. Compared to one month ago, both have moved modestly lower, with the 5 year down 6 basis points and the 10 year down 7 basis points. Let me explain why this matters. In isolation, a 6 to 7 basis point move sounds trivial. In practice, it directly alters deal math. On a $10 million mortgage, a 7 basis point reduction equates to roughly $7,000 per year in lower debt service. That alone does not make or break a deal, but when layered on top of stable spreads and disciplined leverage, it quietly improves debt coverage and reduces refinancing risk. In a market where returns are increasingly driven by execution rather than appreciation, these incremental improvements compound over time.

Yield Curve Analysis

The yield curve remains positively sloped, but slightly flatter at the long end due to the recent easing in intermediate and long rates. The Canada 2 year yield is holding near 2.73 percent, while the 7 year is around 3.18 percent, and the 20 year remains close to 3.73 percent. The curve is not flashing recessionary stress, nor is it signaling accelerating growth. Instead, it suggests the market is increasingly confident that policy rates are stable and that future moves, if any, are likely downward rather than upward. For long duration assets, this supports steady valuation assumptions rather than defensive repositioning.

Current Financing Environment

The financing environment continues to look orderly. CMHC-insured 5 year fixed rates are holding near 3.99 percent, unchanged week over week. Uninsured 5 year fixed multifamily rates remain around 4.49 percent, while floating-rate structures continue to price off CORRA, which is sitting near 2.25 percent. Canada Mortgage Bond yields have mirrored the modest decline in government bonds over the past month, which helps explain why lenders remain competitive despite cautious underwriting. From my perspective, this is a market that rewards locking in certainty rather than stretching on structure.

Market Signals

The Bank of Canada policy rate remains unchanged at 2.25 percent, with prime steady at 4.45 percent. I’m also watching housing starts closely. CMHC total housing starts are currently reported at 254,058 units. The headline number appears solid, but the trend tells the real story. Starts are flat month over month, up 9.1 percent over both the three and six month horizons, yet still down 3.2 percent year over year. This indicates that supply is recovering gradually from earlier weakness but not accelerating fast enough to materially ease rental pressure. It is important never to look at real estate in isolation, and when these figures are viewed alongside population growth and household formation, the supply-demand balance still favors existing rental stock.

My Strategic Positioning

• I’m looking to underwrite acquisitions assuming modest rate relief rather than aggressive easing

• I’m prioritizing fixed-rate financing to lock in current debt economics

• I’m focusing on assets where in-place cash flow provides downside protection

Based on these indicators, here’s what I’m intending to do, stay disciplined, let incremental rate improvements compound quietly, and avoid relying on macro tailwinds to justify pricing.

Macro Context

Equity markets continue to provide a supportive backdrop. The TSX is trading around 32,515, while the S&P 500 is near 6,928, both well above year-ago levels. Volatility has increased, with the MOVE index above 61, but this has not translated into stress in credit markets. The Canadian dollar remains relatively stable near 0.72, and crude oil prices around $59 per barrel suggest energy markets are supportive without reigniting inflation concerns. These broader conditions continue to underpin employment and rental demand.

Bottom Line

This week reinforces a familiar but important theme. The market is not shifting dramatically, but it is easing at the margin. A 6 to 7 basis point decline in benchmark yields improves real estate math quietly, while supply growth remains measured and financing remains accessible. The risk is assuming these conditions will accelerate, while the opportunity lies in underwriting conservatively and allowing small advantages to compound. From my perspective, this is a market that continues to reward patience, accuracy, and disciplined execution.

Important Disclosures

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The content represents my personal views and analysis of market conditions as of November 24, 2025, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular investment or security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Real estate investments involve substantial risk, including but not limited to: market risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, leverage risk, and the potential for total loss of capital. Market conditions, interest rates, government policies, and economic factors can change rapidly and materially affect investment outcomes. The interest rates, spreads, and market data referenced herein are subject to change without notice and may not reflect the rates or terms available to all investors. Actual financing terms will vary based on individual creditworthiness, property characteristics, loan-to-value ratios, and lender-specific underwriting criteria.

All investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with qualified legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. This content does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs. No warranty or guarantee is provided regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information presented. While data sources are believed to be reliable, errors and omissions may occur. Market data and economic indicators are subject to revision. Real estate investments are illiquid and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. Forward-looking statements and market predictions are speculative in nature and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.