Insights

Confidence at Exit Became a Habit One of the most persistent assumptions in Canadian multifamily underwriting over the past decade has been confidence at exit. Entry pricing may be debated, financing may be stressed, and rent growth may be moderated, but the terminal value almost always arrives with quiet certainty. Exit cap rates are typically set just low enough to make the numbers work, supported by familiar justifications: long-term housing shortages, demographic growth,

Each week I review the same core set of market data across rates, credit, housing, and public markets to pressure test my assumptions and ensure my portfolio positioning remains grounded in current conditions. Here’s what caught my attention this week. Government bond yields continue to normalize in a very specific way, short-term rates are materially lower than a year ago while longer-term yields are modestly higher, and that divergence is shaping both our financing decision

Underwriting Canadian Multifamily in 2026 The Assumptions That Quietly Break Deals For much of the past cycle, multifamily underwriting in Canada benefited from an unusually forgiving environment. Rent growth masked operational inefficiencies, narrowed the gap between optimistic assumptions and reality, and allowed deals to stabilize faster than expected. That environment has changed. As we move into 2026, flat rents are no longer a stress scenario in many markets, they are t