Immigration, Policy Shifts, and Canada’s New Demographic Map

For more than a century, immigration has been the single most powerful driver of Canada’s population growth. From the early 1900s to the most recent surge over the last ~7 years, immigrants have filled labour gaps, contributed to economic expansion, and reshaped the cultural landscape of the country. However, in early 2025 Canada has begun to reduce its intake of both permanent and non-permanent residents. The change in policy raises important questions like: where will growth continue despite these changes? which regions will feel the slowdown most acutely? and why are smaller cities like Moncton and Halifax still expected to thrive in this new landscape?

The Recent Peak of Immigration

Canada’s most recent high point in immigration occurred in 2024, when the country welcomed a record 483,390 permanent residents, the largest intake in its history. (2024 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration November 14, 2024). When temporary residents like international students, temporary foreign workers, and asylum seekers, are added to the total, population growth surged even higher. Between 2022 and 2024, Canada's population expanded at a pace not seen since 1913, when a wave of 400,000 immigrants arrived to settle the western provinces. The drivers of this recent boom were fourfold: 1) Government Targets: since 2017, Ottawa has steadily raised immigration levels to counteract a shrinking labour pool and an aging population; 2) The Two-Step System: temporary residents, especially international students and foreign workers, were increasingly offered pathways to permanent status; 3) Economic Demand: labour shortages in healthcare, technology, and trades created a near-insatiable demand for skilled newcomers; and 4) Humanitarian Commitments: Canada expanded refugee and asylum claimant admissions, further boosting numbers. By the end of 2024, the country was experiencing record population growth, especially in large cities such as Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary.

The surge, however, seems to have created mounting challenges. Housing affordability, already strained in large metropolitan areas, worsened significantly as supply failed to keep pace with demand. Infrastructure stress, including public transit, healthcare, and social services, further fueled public concern. As a result, in 2025 the federal government reversed course. Ottawa began trimming back annual admissions to levels more in line with housing and infrastructure capacity by lowering permanent resident targets. Furthermore, caps were imposed on international student permits, and rules around temporary workers tightened thereby reducing non-permanent residents. Finally, policy shifted toward distributing immigrants more evenly, with rural and mid-sized communities receiving targeted support through pilot programs and Francophone initiatives. This policy shift represents a balancing act, maintaining immigration as an economic and demographic engine while addressing the social and political strains of rapid growth.

Where Growth Will Continue

Despite the slowdown, some regions of Canada are still poised for strong population growth. The reasons vary, from interprovincial migration patterns to targeted federal initiatives, but the trend appears clear: growth is shifting away from the largest cities and toward smaller centres and resource-rich provinces.

1. Alberta and the Prairies

Alberta continues to lead the country in net interprovincial migration, as Canadians from other provinces move there in search of lower housing costs and strong employment opportunities. Saskatchewan and Manitoba, though to a lesser extent, are also benefiting from immigration streams less dependent on temporary residents compared to Ontario and British Columbia.

2. Atlantic Canada

Perhaps the most impressive story lies in the Atlantic provinces, where immigration policies and local initiatives have been highly effective at both attracting and retaining newcomers. Two cities in particular stand out:

• Moncton, New Brunswick

Once considered a modest regional hub, Moncton has transformed into one of the fastest-growing cities in Atlantic Canada. Its affordability compared to larger markets, coupled with demand for workers in healthcare, trades, and logistics, makes it an attractive destination. The federal government’s push for Francophone immigration outside Quebec also plays directly into Moncton’s bilingual character, ensuring a steady flow of newcomers.

• Halifax, Nova Scotia

Halifax has emerged as the economic and cultural capital of the Atlantic region. Its universities attract international students, many of whom stay through pathways to permanent residency. Healthcare demand, a vibrant startup ecosystem, and its port economy continue to make Halifax a magnet for skilled workers. Even as caps on student permits tighten, Halifax is positioned to absorb a healthy share of Canada’s reduced immigration intake.

3. Rural and Northern Communities

The Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot Program, and similar programs, offer a direct pathway to permanent residence for skilled workers who commit to living and working outside major metropolitan areas. These initiatives are particularly important for smaller communities facing labour shortages in healthcare, manufacturing, and resource extraction.

By contrast, Ontario and British Columbia are set to experience a noticeable slowdown. These provinces have historically relied heavily on international students, who fuel local economies and often transition to permanent residency. With Ottawa imposing stricter caps on student permits, growth in cities like Toronto and Vancouver will slow. Vancouver, for instance, has already seen projections revised downward, with estimates suggesting 50,000 fewer residents by 2050 than previously expected. Housing affordability pressures and high living costs make these cities less accessible for newcomers, even with permanent pathways. (Population growth of Metro Vancouver slows due to federal immigration policy changes, Global News)

Underlying these policy debates is the demographic reality that Canada’s population is aging rapidly. By 2025, Newfoundland and Labrador became the first province where more than 25% of residents are over 65. This trend is similar across the country, underscoring why immigration remains essential, even if the pace has slowed. The challenge for policymakers is therefore one of distribution rather than elimination: ensuring that immigration continues to support economic vitality in regions that need it most, without overwhelming housing and infrastructure.

Why, In our Opinion, Moncton and Halifax Will Benefit

The cities of Moncton and Halifax illustrate the new logic of immigration policy:

1. Affordability: Both cities offer housing at prices far below those in Toronto or Vancouver, making them attractive to both newcomers and interprovincial migrants.

2. Targeted Immigration Streams: Francophone initiatives in Moncton and regional pilots in Halifax ensure a steady supply of immigrants tailored to local labour needs.

3. Labour Market Alignment: Both cities face pressing shortages in healthcare, skilled trades, and services—sectors prioritized by federal immigration programs.

4. Community Integration: Atlantic Canada has built a strong reputation for welcoming newcomers, with provincial governments and local organizations investing in settlement services and retention strategies.

Together, these factors suggest that while Canada’s overall immigration levels may be diminishing, growth in these cities should continue to outpace national averages.

After years of record inflows culminating in 2024’s historic peak, the federal government’s 2025 policy shift marks a decisive effort to slow growth in response to housing and infrastructure pressures. However, it does not signal a cessation of immigration altogether. Instead, it represents a redirection of growth, away from larger centers like Toronto and Vancouver and toward smaller provinces and communities that stand to benefit most. Cities like Moncton and Halifax will likely benefit disproportionately from this shift. Affordable, welcoming, and aligned with federal priorities, they are seemingly poised to become the new areas of Canadian population growth in the years ahead.